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Industry:
Airlines
Fiscal Year-End:
Jun 10

VBA competes on all of QAN's key domestic routes and has about a one-third market share. It operates around 80 aircraft, servicing numerous destinations in Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Vanuatu and the Cook Islands. In January 2004, the airline launched Pacific Blue and in October 2005, VBA joined with the Government of Samoa to launch 'Polynesian Blue'. V Australia was launched in 2008 and began flying to Los Angeles in 2009.

Brett Godfrey and Rob Sherrard established VBA in Nov-99. With US$10M in seed capital from Richard Branson's Virgin Group, the pair modelled the airline on European and US low-cost carriers. VBA began operating in Aug-00. In Mar-02, Patrick Corp acquired a 50% stake from Virgin Group for $500M. VBA floated on the ASX on 8-Dec-03 at $2.25 per share. TOL's takeover of Patrick gave it control of VBA, but in Jul-08 it decided to divest its VBA stake via an in specie distribution to TOL shareholders.

The Australian aviation market is virtually a duopoly between VBA and QAN. VBA is Australia's leading low-cost carrier. The industry faces several macro factors that may impact earnings - competition, terrorism, war, political fall-out, regulatory issues, economic slowdowns and international issues. VBA also has a small freight operation.

VBA benefits from a highly competitive cost structure. VBA has (1) a modern and an efficient fleet; (2) flexible workplace arrangements; (3) cheap Brisbane HQ; (4) point-to-point services rather than a hub and spoke system; (5) elimination of expensive, non-essential add-ons such as free meals; and (6) effective and streamlined distribution model (over 90% of tickets sold are via the internet and the platform is ticketless).

Customers: mostly leisure travellers on regional routes. VBA is also focusing on growing the corporate sector. Major domestic competitors are primarily Qantas and Jetstar but also regionals like Rex, Airnorth and Skywest. As VBA expands overseas, competitors will include Air NZ (and its LCC Freedom Air), Emirates, Singapore Airlines, Air Vanuatu, Cathay Pacific, Thai Airways, Japan Airlines. Freight: other handlers like QAN, Australian Air Express, DHL, UPS, FedEx and various customs brokers.

Research provided by  

Market Statistics

Market Cap ($M):
695.9
Equiv. Shares (M):
2,210.3
% All Ords:
0.05
12Mth Range ($):
0.28 - 0.80
Turnover ($M pa):
2,295.3
Index:
S&P/ASX 200
Sector:
Industrials
Industry Group:
Transportation
Industry:
Airlines
Sub Industry:
Airlines

Calendar Of Events

Date
Event
25-Feb-10
Reporting Date for Half Yearly Result
27-Aug-09
Reporting Date for Final Year Result
23-Feb-09
Reporting Date for Half Yearly Result
28-Nov-08
AGM Date for Final Year Result
19-Aug-08
Reporting Date for Final Year Result

Directors

Name
Position
N Chatfield
Chairman
J Borghetti
MD/ CEO
D A Baxby
Director
P Little
Non-Executive Director
P McCall
Non-Executive Director
T Mallon
Director
Mr Vaile
non-executive independent director
Roberts
Alternate Director

Management

Name
Position
J Borghetti
CEO
A David
COO
K Neate
CFO
D Huttner
Head of Communications and Strategy
S Swift
Head of Corporate Affairs

Substantial Shareholders

Name
% Holding
Virgin Group
25.5
Paradice Investment Management
5.3

Consensus Recommendation Summary


0

0

4

3

4
Sell Under Perf. Hold Out Perf. Buy

Number of Brokers in Recommendation Summary: 11

Consensus Earnings

FY10 FY11
Consensus EPS1 (c) 1.5 4.4
EPS Growth (%)   196.6
P/E Ratio (x) 20.9 7.1
P/E Rel. All Ords (x) 1.87 n/a
P/E Rel. Sector (x) n/a n/a
Number of Brokers in Earnings Survey: 8 9

1. Consensus EPS is generally "reported EPS" but will vary as to whether it is on a pre or post preference earnings basis. This number is not always on the same basis as the Aegis EPS.

Historical Forecast Earnings And Recommendations

Consensus Recommendations

Consensus information provided by Reuters.

Consensus EPS Forecasts 1

1. Consensus EPS is generally "reported EPS" but will vary as to whether it is on a pre or post preference earnings basis. This number is not always on the same basis as the Aegis EPS.

Peer Recommendation Comparison

  P/E (x) EPS Chg (%) Dividend Yield (%) MktCap ($M) Price ($) Consensus Rec
  09A 09A 09A    
Qantas Airways 29.2 (82.1) 3.0 5,594.9 2.47 Out Perf.
Virgin Blue 3.7 (37.1) 0.0 695.9 0.31 Out Perf.
Regional Express Holdings Ltd 4.6 (14.6) 0.0 123.7 1.02 Buy

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