Aegis Equities Research

Energy

NZ Oil & Gas (NZO) No catalysts on the horizon 09/09/2010 11:39
As a result of the recent merger with Morningstar, Aegis now provides research on NZO. NZO reported a loss of... + more As a result of the recent merger with Morningstar, Aegis now provides research on NZO. NZO reported a loss of NZ$3.3m in FY10 versus a profit of NZ$53.2m in FY09. Adjusted profit excluding losses from Pike River and foreign exchange was NZ$13.8m. EBITDAX before exploration expenditure dropped 22% to NZ$64.5m essentially reflecting lower contribution from Tui as a result of falling volumes. NZO’s net cash balances declined to NZ$79.6m from NZ$174.8m. The board maintained dividends at NZ5cps. - less

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Materials

Amcor (AMC) Life after Alcan 08/09/2010 12:34
Investment thesis update. Packaging businesses face a fundamental paradox – volumes rise when economic conditions are strong but raw... + more Investment thesis update. Packaging businesses face a fundamental paradox – volumes rise when economic conditions are strong but raw material costs also move higher, diminishing margins. When raw material costs fall, economic conditions are usually weak and volumes inevitably suffer. - less

Panaust (PNA) 1H10 Result – Copper bottomed 03/09/2010 14:36
PNA announced its 1H10 results to 30 June. Phu Kham production reached 32,017 tonnes of copper in concentrate, up 34%... + more PNA announced its 1H10 results to 30 June. Phu Kham production reached 32,017 tonnes of copper in concentrate, up 34% on the pcp. Revenue climbed 63% to US$224m. Net profit was US$53m, up from a loss of US$18m. Operating cash flow of US$80m was used to retire US$34m of debt. FY10 EBITDA guidance was upgraded by around 19% to US$220m-US$240m. Phu Kham production guidance is now ‘over 63,000 tonnes’ of concentrate. - less

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Industrials

Air New Zealand (AIZ) Yield and demand outlook improving 09/09/2010 11:30
As a result of the recent merger with Morningstar, Aegis now provides research on AIZ. The company posted normalized PBT... + more As a result of the recent merger with Morningstar, Aegis now provides research on AIZ. The company posted normalized PBT of NZ$137m for FY10 compared to NZ$145m in FY09. Revenue fell 8% yoy excluding forex gains and cessation of freighter service. Passenger demand decreased by 4.7% and yields dropped 7.1% for the year. AIR enjoyed massive fuel cost savings particularly in the first-half. Full year dividends were lifted to NZ8cps, an increase of 8% on last year, reflecting the improved outlook. - less

Seek Ltd (SEK) Education improves results 08/09/2010 14:17
NPAT powered up 62% to $89.6m, with revenue up 35% to $281m,buoyed by sustained 2H growth from the employment division... + more NPAT powered up 62% to $89.6m, with revenue up 35% to $281m,buoyed by sustained 2H growth from the employment division and surge in 1H profits from the education division. Education surprised us in the 1H with revenues up 46% and comparable profits up 84%. This performance is off a low base but reflects the strong adoption of SEK learning as the number one online career destination for education and training. After adjusting our forecasts we recommend Hold above $6.45. - less

Transfield Services (TSE) Economic slowdown and strong A$ takes toll on international operations 09/09/2010 11:13
Group revenue in FY10 fell 7% and Group margins declined in all three wholly owned operating regions on the back... + more Group revenue in FY10 fell 7% and Group margins declined in all three wholly owned operating regions on the back of lower work volumes, increased competition for available work and restructuring costs taken above the line. A stronger A$ and investment cutbacks in the US and Middle East added to the woes. Australian & NZ held its own, benefiting from the Federal Government’s infrastructure stimulus spending. TSI Fund’s contribution was softer. Normalised Group profit fell 18% to $96m. - less

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Consumer Discretionary

Harvey Norman (HVN) Clive Peeters to drive FY11 earnings growth 08/09/2010 12:43
FY10 NPAT was up 15.8% to $290m, with revenues down 1% to $2.4bn. 1H NPAT was up 38% due to... + more FY10 NPAT was up 15.8% to $290m, with revenues down 1% to $2.4bn. 1H NPAT was up 38% due to a strong Christmas buoyed by the government's cash handouts and the first homeowner's grant. Activity slowed in 2H as consecutive interest rate rises constrained spending. ‘The outlook for FY11 looks promising. We believe we are going into a period of full employment, low interest rates and homes with good balance sheets … we believe, looking forward, that it will be a pretty good 12 months,’ says HVN. - less

InvoCare (IVC) Profit continues to grow despite volume fall 08/09/2010 12:38
1H10 sales increased 4.2% to $128.7m driving a 12.5% rise in EBITDA to $33.0m. NPAT grew 16% to $16.6m while... + more 1H10 sales increased 4.2% to $128.7m driving a 12.5% rise in EBITDA to $33.0m. NPAT grew 16% to $16.6m while EPS rose 15.5% to 16.4c. Directors increased DPS 1.5c to 13c fully franked. Net operating cash flow expanded from $15.3m to $18.3m. Net debt to equity was constant at close to 200%, but interest cover remained comfortable at 5.2 times. Finance costs, including the cost of interest rate hedges, increased from $4.3m to $5.0m. - less

Pacific Brands (PBG) Transformation benefits a year ahead of schedule in FY10 08/09/2010 11:07
PBG’s FY10 sales fell just over 10%, partly due to the brand divestment and discontinuation program. The difficult retail environment... + more PBG’s FY10 sales fell just over 10%, partly due to the brand divestment and discontinuation program. The difficult retail environment also undermined sales as did the actions of discount department stores to focus on core brands. EBIT margin at the Group level was stable year on year, but this masked impressive EBIT margin uplifts in three of the four divisions in the second half. Adjusted NPAT fell 10% but EPS slumped 43% due to the dilutive capital raising in May 2009. No dividends were paid. - less

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Australian Equity Strategy

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Consumer Staple

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